By Daniel Casanta, Contributing Writer
The wait is finally over. Months of buzzer-beaters, upsets and high-powered matchups have led to the unveiling of the NCAA Tournament. With Selection Sunday behind us, many teams and fan bases were left in states of shock or celebration.
With the bracket officially set, the madness begins. Who has the talent to win it all? Which Cinderella team is primed for a deep run? Which matchups could bust brackets on day one? March is finally here, and anything could happen as 68 teams all battle for one championship over the next three weeks.
The selection committee gave us four #1 seeds on Selection Sunday, one in each region (Midwest, West, East, South). Although they may be the consensus top team in the region, that doesn’t mean they will make it out. The final four takes place in San Antonio, the first week of April, and only one team from each region will make it there come April.
The Midwest Region
The Midwest region is headlined by #1 Houston and #2 Tennessee. Both teams are strong candidates to survive this region, coming in both ranked within the top 10 of the Associated Press (AP) Poll and the NET rankings (a tool the selection committee uses based on strength of schedule, quality of wins and scoring margin).
The favorites to come out of this region are definitely Houston and Tennessee; however, there are teams who are poised for a run, and a berth in San Antonio. The Clemson Tigers reached the elite 8 last year, and have a similar returning cast, but will have to shoot the 3-ball well to contend. Illinois is also a dark horse in this region, as with their combo of high scoring guards and dominant big man Tomislav Ivisic, they can get hot and make a run.
The upset picks in this region have to be High Point out of the Big South Conference, and Mcneese out of the Southland. High Point is among the top scoring teams in America, and could potentially beat a Purdue team that has been reeling as of late. A 13 seed has won three of the last five tournaments, so it could be HPU this year. Mcneese, who was a popular upset pick last year, will look to win their first March Madness game in years over Clemson.
The West Region
The SEC champion Florida Gators and the Big East Conference champion St. John’s Red Storm are the top two seeds in this region, and will look to continue their good play from their conference tournaments into the Big Dance.
Florida and St. John’s may be the clear frontrunners, but both teams could run into experienced competition. UConn, the two-time defending champs, lurk as an 8 seed in the West region, and will rely on their experience to come out of this region. The Kansas Jayhawks, who didn’t finish top three in their conference for the first time since 1982, are still very skilled, and can’t be overlooked in the West.
The top upset picks in the region have to be both Colorado State and Drake. Colorado State won the Mountain West Conference and were wildly underseeded. They play Memphis in the first round, and are certainly on upset watch. The Drake Bulldogs won the Missouri Valley Conference and have a roster combined of mostly Division 2 transfers. They are a gritty team that could make a run and win an upset.
The East Region
Duke and Alabama headline the favorites within the East region. Duke is the consensus number one team in the nation, led by future NBA Lottery Pick Cooper Flagg. Alabama, a team that made the final four just a season ago, has a veteran presence and the fastest pace in the tournament that can take them all the way.
Teams not to overlook would be Arizona and Wisconsin. The Arizona Wildcats, led by fifth year senior Caleb Love, have experience and have gotten hot lately winning four out of their last five against top 25 competition. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is the best free throw shooting team in the country, and free throw shooting has been known to make or break runs in March.
Potential upset picks in this region are less obvious than others, with a stacked field of higher seeds. One that sticks out is 11 seed VCU against BYU in the first round. VCU is coming off an Atlantic-10 conference championship, and is led by one of the best three and defense guys in the nation, Max Shulga. In years past, an 11 seed has won 1.6 games per tournament on average.
The South Region
The South is by far the hardest region to decipher. Louisville, currently ranked tenth in the AP Poll, was given an 8 seed. Big 10 champion Michigan, SEC powerhouse Auburn, and the Big 10 regular season Michigan State Spartans all loom in this region.
A sleeper team in the South is hard to find. All these teams are proven winners, and whoever survives will have gone through an absolute gauntlet. However, Texas A&M (if they can beat Yale in the first round) has all the tools to make a run. They beat Auburn already, and are led by Wade Taylor, a veteran presence with a silky jumpshot.
There are two very public upset picks in this region: Yale and UC San Diego. Both teams have exceptional shooting, and exceptional defense. However, a team looking for an upset bid that can’t be overlooked is Lipscomb. Iowa State is down their best player, and Lipscomb is one of the most disciplined and efficient teams in the country, according to the NET rankings. Since 2011, at least one team seeded 11th or worse has made the Sweet 16, so any of these three teams could be this year’s surprise.
Key Stats
Some key stats to keep in mind when filling out your brackets: first, a 1 seed has made the final four in every tournament besides 2023. Second, Cinderella teams usually have three traits: great 3-point shooting, elite defense, and they don’t turn the ball over. The last five double digit seeds to make the Sweet 16 all ranked top 30 in 3-point shooting. Finally, a full-time first year coach has never won it all.
As you finalize your bracket, remember that it’s called March Madness for a reason. Anything can happen, Cinderellas will be born, and your bracket is bound to be busted at some point. But keep in mind the trends, trust the numbers, and embrace the upsets to have the best bracket possible. Buckle up and enjoy the madness!
