By Brandon Fey, Staff Writer
The Gettysburg College chapter of the Alexander Hamilton Society hosted Russo-Ukraine War expert Raphael S. Cohen as a guest speaker in the Mara Auditorium of Masters Hall on Oct. 25 from 6 to 7 p.m.
Cohen is currently employed by the RAND Corporation, a non-partisan global policy think-tank and research center. He is the author of several articles about the ongoing war in Ukraine. The focus of his lecture was to provide information on the conflict from a tenured foreign policy perspective.
He began by discussing what the world had believed to be a swift Russian invasion, which has become a prolonged war of attrition. His presentation featured images from the front lines of men in trenches, and he made a comparison between the current conflict and such iconic characteristics of the First World War.
Cohen then talked about Russia’s geographic and cultural concerns regarding Ukraine, including the idea of Ukraine as a buffer state and the belief that Ukrainians and Russians are one people. Cohen credited this as part of the rationale behind the invasion, coupled with a possible sense of opportunity following the United State’s recent military withdrawal from Afghanistan.
He also referenced Russia’s unconventional tactics used in previous aggression against Ukraine, including the use of unidentifiable militants without insignia in the 2014 occupation of Crimea. Cohen also discussed the disinformation campaign and employment of proxies and separatist volunteer units in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine in the same year.
The speaker mentioned how the Russian disinformation campaign has convinced many in the West that Russia is of a higher military capability than it actually is. Despite public displays of new military technology such as the T-14 Armata main battle tank and K-52 Alligator attack helicopter, much of its armaments are either faulty or non-operational.
It was also said that the Russian military culture is characterized by a lack of transparency and accountability with an incentive to present only positive information to superiors. This coincides with Russia’s false narrative of military dominance as indicated by its unexpected shortcomings in the war.
Cohen argued that Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was influenced by groupthink and isolation. Cohen said the Russian president surrounds himself with “yes men” and runs an effective propaganda campaign that hinders even his own insight.
In comparison, it was discussed that the Ukrainian military is often overlooked and underestimated, despite their recent modernization efforts and successes in the Donbas region. Ukrainian nationalism has become more prominent since 2014, shown through the creation of makeshift memorials for soldiers who died fighting. This has emboldened the nation to remain steadfast in its defense.
By May 2022, the Ukrainians had pushed back the Russian advance, with notable movements and changes occurring between then and now. Cohen stated that Russia had made the mistake of underestimating Ukraine’s military capabilities, particularly in urban warfare.
Cohen highlighted the effective communication and leadership of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky from the early stages of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, particularly through his use of social media. He referred to him as an almost “Churchillian figure” determined in the defense of his nation. This was contrasted with the fabricated self-image in which Putin presents himself to the world.
“Zelensky sort of knew how this sort of information would play to a Western audience, particularly when contrasted to the images of Putin on one side of a very long table with all of his generals at the other,” said Cohen.
Ukrainian defense experts have been working toward the country achieving NATO standards, despite facing challenges and corruption. According to Cohen, the West has a tendency to focus on the Russian military’s resources and capabilities while ignoring the Ukrainian military’s limitations and challenges.
For example, he cited Ukraine’s proximity to Russia and lack of logistical support as factors hindering their military efforts. Cohen said that continued foreign aid is essential for Ukraine to survive the conflict as it has taken an extensive economic toll on the country. Cohen thought it may be necessary for the U.S. Congress to continue providing aid to Ukraine through compromise legislation as the American role in the war has become a divisive political issue.
Cohen concluded his presentation by remarking that at this point, he is uncertain about the future of the war as much will depend on increased foreign aid to Ukraine. He took some questions from the audience and thanked Gettysburg College for hosting him.
